Monday 14 December 2015

Modern Day Football - A Stat too Far?

 

Intro

The level of essay procrastination has reached an all time high - I'm starting a blog! Anyone who knows me will realise that basically everything I speak about revolves around sport, unsurprisingly sport will be the mainstay of this page! Throughout the past decade we have arguably witnessed the greatest revolution for centuries of the game we all know and love. Internet access, social media and TV analysis are at the forefront of an era of change for world football. The global exposure of the English Premier League (EPL) has thrust players, coaches and even club directors into the spotlight like never before. So, aside from the billions of pounds in TV revenue and sky-high transfer fees that line agents' pockets, what has changed about the nitty gritty of football - and are these changes for the better?

The Changing Nature of Football - A Manchester United Case Study

In recent times whenever Manchester United have been in action there has been a predictability of their play; Smalling to Blind, forward into Schweinsteiger, square to Carrick and finally back to De Gea who clears long towards Fellaini. It has been made explicitly clear that United fans have become dismayed with Van Gaal's possession-based "philosophy". It may not be setting the heather on fire at United but at the major European clubs currently experiencing success such as Barcelona or Bayern Munich, it would be unthinkable for Enrique or Guierdiola's sides to finish the game with less than 60% possession. That leads me on to the main investigation for this post...Why isn't possession-based football working for Man United, why are fans pining for the 2 wingers, swashbuckling football of the 90s and why does this style work more effectively for European clubs?

Possession-based football: A Recent History

For many the answer to the previously mentioned questions comes down to Van Gaal's stubbornness in attempting to implement a failing tactical approach. On the other hand, during the all-conquering the rise of the "Tika-Taka" Barcelona and Spain sides of 2008-2012 coaches, pundits and supporters alike became obsessed with playing "beautiful" football and dominating the possession battle. The old fashioned 4-4-2 with two wingers delivering crosses was replaced by a stylish 4-3-3, a perfect example was the 2011 Champions League (CL) winning Barcelona team. In beating Man United 3-1, Barca lined up with a 4-3-3 which included one holding midfielder (Busquets) and two interchangeable inside forwards (Pedro and Villa) as opposed to outright wingers. Over the course of the match Barca boasted 63% overall possession, with an even higher average 67% in the first half. For many this team was a footballing ideal, from Goalkeeper Valdes to Messi upfront they possessed a supreme confidence, incredible passing range and a jaw dropping finesse.
 
What isn't working for Manchester United's current crop?
 
So, what exactly is the problem for Van Gaal's united? A mounting injury list has been cited and this must be acknowledged, however regardless of injuries a no win in 5 competitive games is simply not good enough for a club the size of Manchester United. To determine what is going wrong at united I'm going to attempt a post-mortem into the recent 2-1 defeat at the hands of AFC Bournemouth. I've picked the Bournemouth game to investigate because they are a team who in recent weeks have adapted their own possession-based philosophy in order to cope with supposedly "superior" opponents. To make things easier for the reader I'm going to attach pictures of the match stats below which I'll refer to throughout.
 
Match Stats:
 
 Key: Bournemouth, Manchester United


Passes Completed:                                                                  Possession:                            
 
                                                                         

 
 
  
 Attacking 3rd Passes:                                                                           Shots:
                                                                                                
                                                                    

                                       

Lack of Attacking Options
Referring to the stats above we can identify the first problem with United's performance on Saturday night; a lack of quality in the attacking third of the pitch. Despite only having 43% of possession the host's still managed to match United's shot total. Another difference in United's play in comparison to the European heavyweights is the manner of possession they have throughout the game. United's top passing combination against Bournemouth was McNair to Blind with 17 pass combos, this shows much of the possession was in a defensive area, where Bournemouth were happy to concede the ball. In terms of chances created Bournemouth once again outshone united, this time it was an astounding 8-2 difference in favour of the home side. This evidence clearly shows that Louis Van Gaal's outfit are bereft of ideas in the final third, it also makes the ill-advised decision to let go of free-scoring Javier Hernandez to Leverkusen and RVP to Fernebache seem very naïve.
 
Defensive Frailties
Despite their lacklustre attacking exploits, United's defensive record prior to Saturday had been a beacon of hope and consistency in this unpredictable season. A particular highlight with defence has been the performances of Chris "Mike" Smalling. Establishing himself as a composed, solid Premier League centre-half he has also played his way into the reckoning for a key role at Euro 2016. Conversely it appeared that on Saturday night under the south coast lights, the United defence were mere shadows of previous displays this season. To be fair to United defence was the area where the injury crisis was most evident. Starting with the relatively inexperienced McNair and the complete rookies Varela and Borthwick-Jackson they were up reliant on Dutch World Cup star Blind. The two centre-backs struggled immensely with the pace of the Bournemouth attack (particularly King and Stanislas). A few stats to demonstrate the struggle tell us that McNair won only 50% of his attempted tackles and that King had the game's highest number of successful take-ons (4). Rounding off the defensive inquisition is the fact that United were twice undone by Set-Pieces - a cardinal sin in any manager's book. However credit must go to AFC Bournemouth and manager Eddie Howe for the cleverly developed corner-kick routine that led to the second goal.
                                                               
Summary
So are some football mangers getting too bogged down with possession stats instead of simply winning games no matter what? Do fans (particularly of Manchester United) miss the more direct, attacking football played by Ferguson's team? At the end of the day football is an opinion-based sport, and that's what we all love - having our own point of view and debating it with others. Having established a few reasons for the current downfall of Van Gaal's "philosophy" at United I will look to summarise these into a few short bullet points.
 
  • United lack pace and penetration in terms of their possession.
  • Defensively they looked frail against Wolfsburg and Bournemouth, particularly conceding set-piece goals.
  • Attacking options are at a minimum with Anthony Martial often looking an isolated figure up top. 
  • Injuries, inexperience and strange substitutions, such as Powell for Fellaini on Saturday are also contributing to the downfall.
Hopefully this first entry will have given some tactical insight into Manchester United's current struggles - if not at least I've tried! If it turns out that the feedback I get from this entry is not complete rubbish, I have a few topics lined up for future posts. Among these ideas are 'The rise of Ranieri's Leicester" and "Scottish Football - What isn't going wrong?!" As well as these I have considered introducing betting tips (I wouldn't put your mortgage on them) and branching out to analyse other sports such as rugby or even having a bash at tennis. This is the first piece of sports journalism I've written since school match reports and is very informal... so please go easy everyone!!
                                                                                                       
References
"Team statistics: Full time" (PDF). UEFA.com. Union of European Football Associations. 28 May 2011. Retrieved 29 May 2011.
Event key (no date) Available at: http://www.fourfourtwo.com/statszone/8-2015/matches/803315/team-stats/91/3_DEFENCE_03#tabs-wrapper-anchor#:G9Rqz6KqAw3j-A (Accessed: 15 December 2015).